An Expert System for Unit Commitment and Power Demand Prediction Using Fuzzy Logic and Neural Networks

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John Wiley & Sons, Inc


The paper discusses the implementation of a fuzzy logic and artificial neural networks approach to providing a structural framework for the representation, manipulation and utilisation of data and information concerning prediction of power demand and generation commitments. An algorithm has been implemented and trained to predict the power demand at each load point on an hourly basis. The neural network is then implemented to supply the brute force necessary to accommodate the large amount of sensory data to provide the initial evaluation of the generation units to be committed. Results of the fuzzy model show a reasonable correspondence with the actual power demand. A standard deviation error for an hourly based prediction is limited to 4.4. Further refinement of the fuzzy model may produce further improvements.

Implementation of artificial neural networks for scheduling an hourly unit commitment based on load demands is also discussed The backpropagation technique based on the I/O mapping method has been chosen for structuring the neural network. Geographically related load points and generating units are clustered into groups. Grouping has significantly reduced the number of inputs and outputs to the neural network and, hence, reduced the system complexity. As a result, both training requirements and running real time interaction are significantly improved. The expert system would replace and utilise the requirement for skilled dispatchers in scheduling the generators. It is anticipated that this facility is more accurate, dynamic, adaptive and more efficient than a skilled dispatcher. The overall cost of power generation is expected to be less if the new facility is used. Initial results have reflected a satisfactory correlation between predicted and actual results, with a standard deviation error of 1.71% and 1.96% in the base load units of HTPS and ATPS respectively.