International Association of Hydrological Sciences
Diagnostic studies of 14-year, 2 — 2°, Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model off-line simulations of the global terrestrial water budget suggest that, given the annual variability in the major components of continental hydrological cycles (precipitation, evaporation, and runoff), several decades to perhaps centuries of measurements may be needed to detect with high confidence the intensification predicted by recent global climate model (GCM) studies simulating plausible global warming scenarios. Furthermore, these measurements may need to originate from a wider geographic expanse than is currently investigated within large-scale hydrological assessment programmes, such as the Global Energy and Water Experiment (GEWEX). Smaller, geographically dispersed basins, including many of those participating in the International Flow Regimes from International Experimental and Network Data (FRIEND) programme, could therefore play important roles in detection of an intensification in the global water cycle.
Ziegler, A.D., J. Sheffield, E.F. Wood, B. Nijssen, E.P. Maurer and D.P. Lettenmaier, 2002, Detection of intensification of the global water cycle: the potential role of FRIEND, International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) Redbook publication No. 274, 51-57