Post-2011 scenarios in Sudan: What role for the EU?

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European Union Institute for Security Studies


In a forward-looking perspective, this report elaborates on four scenarios for Sudan’s future preliminarily identified by other studies: (i) forced unity; (ii) forced secession; (iii) agreed unity; (iv) agreed secession. It looks specifically at the key variables to be taken into account to anticipate the most probable scenarios and to see which options would bring more benefits than costs to the Sudanese people and their leadership. The report presents the views of a group of Sudan experts which, overall, are strikingly convergent and are summarised below. It also identifies long-term, mid-term and short-term recommendations for the EU and for all stakeholders concerned by Sudan’s future.


Damien Helly